Treasury Yields Surge 80bp Since March, JPMorgan Sees 10-Year at 4.70%
JPM•Yields on two- and five-year Treasuries jumped more than 80 basis points since March to 4.19% and 4.31%, while benchmark 10-year yields climbed over 60 basis points to 4.57%, driving markets to price a quarter-point Fed hike by December. JPMorgan forecasts 10-year yields ending 2026 at 4.70%.
1. Treasury Yield Movements
Yields on two- and five-year Treasuries have risen more than 80 basis points since March to 4.19% and 4.31%, while benchmark 10-year rates climbed over 60 basis points to 4.57%.
2. Fed Rate Hike Expectations
Investors now price a quarter-point Fed funds increase by December and assign about a 16% probability to a second hike, citing strong jobs data and rising inflation pressures from Middle East tensions.
3. JPMorgan Forecast
JPMorgan forecasts 10-year Treasury yields finishing the year at 4.70%, a view that could support higher net interest margins for banks but also signals tighter funding costs.
