Trump Export Easing Could Restore $6.2 Billion China Sales and Boost Advanced Micro Devices EPS 62%
The Trump administration announced that AMD can resume selling its advanced AI data-center chips in China under revised export controls with a 25% export fee, potentially restoring up to $6.2 billion of 2024 China revenue. Analysts forecast the reopening could drive a 62% EPS surge to $6.46 and accelerate revenue growth.
1. Strong Third-Quarter Performance and OpenAI Partnership
Advanced Micro Devices reported third-quarter revenue of $9.25 billion, up 36% year-over-year, driven by data center sales that rose 22% to $4.3 billion. Gross margin expanded to 44.3%, reflecting operational leverage on higher volumes. The recent multi-year agreement to supply custom AI accelerators to OpenAI positions AMD to capture a growing share of the generative AI market, with management forecasting data center revenue growth of at least 50% in 2026 and contributing to an overall 31% increase in full-year 2025 sales to approximately $34 billion.
2. Migration to N2 Process and Introduction of D2D Interconnect
AMD is transitioning its next-generation MI300X AI accelerator line to TSMC’s N2 process node, promising up to 25% performance per watt improvement over N3E. Alongside this, the new die-to-die (D2D) interconnect technology will double chiplet bandwidth to 5 TB/s, reducing latency by 40%. These hidden advantages are expected to improve system efficiency in high-performance computing workloads and strengthen AMD’s competitive position against incumbent GPU suppliers in hyperscale data centers.
3. Re-entry into the Chinese Market as a Major Growth Driver
With recent U.S. export rule adjustments, AMD anticipates regaining access to Chinese customers for its high-end MI300 series, after receiving government approval contingent on a 25% export fee. China accounted for nearly $6.2 billion, or 24%, of 2024 revenue before controls took effect in April 2025. Analysts now model a return to 2024 China sales levels in 2026, potentially adding $6 billion in incremental revenue and lifting consolidated top-line growth by up to 18 percentage points next year.
4. Bullish Investor Outlook and Upside Potential
Based on consensus estimates for 62% year-over-year earnings growth to $6.46 per share in 2026 and a maintained price-to-earnings multiple in the low 40s, AMD’s market capitalization could expand by at least 15% by the delivery of its Helios AI rack solutions. Institutional investor positioning remains robust, with 71% of shares held by funds and recent broker upgrades—three ‘Strong Buy’ and 28 ‘Buy’ ratings—underscoring expectations that AMD’s combined technology roadmap and market expansion will drive sustained long-term value creation.