TSMC CoWoS Packaging Capacity Bottleneck Drives Google’s 25% TPU Cut

TSMTSM

Taiwan Semiconductor’s CoWoS advanced packaging capacity is fully booked with Nvidia claiming over half through 2026–27, forcing Google to slash its 2026 TPU target from 4 million to 3 million units. TSMC plans to double advanced wafer output by 2028 and repurpose 200 mm fabs for packaging to boost AI chip supply.

1. Bullish Outlook Spurs Additional Gains

Analysts at Goldman Sachs upgraded their forecast for Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. this week, citing sustained strength in foundry demand and the potential for another year of double-digit revenue growth. The firm highlighted that the company’s 45% share gain over the past 12 months was underpinned by expanding capacity in its 5-nanometer and 3-nanometer process nodes, and noted that planned output increases in Hsinchu and Taichung could drive a repeat performance. Goldman’s team pointed to robust order backlogs from leading AI and high-performance computing clients, projecting that capital expenditure of $30 billion this year will support wafer starts rising by 20%.

2. Record Highs on Optimism Around AI

Shares of the global contract chipmaker hit fresh all-time highs this week, rallying as much as 6% in a single session—its largest one-day advance since April. Investors have grown more optimistic about accelerating artificial intelligence deployments, with some forecasting that AI-related wafer revenue could account for over 25% of total sales by year-end. Several research firms, including Barclays and UBS, raised their fair-value estimates to between $330 and $360 per share-equivalent valuation (without referencing the ticker), citing strong gross margins in excess of 60% at advanced nodes and the upcoming rollout of customers’ next-generation AI accelerators.

3. Legal Headwinds in Trade Secrets Case

Taiwan’s prosecutors filed new charges against the local unit of Tokyo Electron and three former engineers accused of misappropriating proprietary data from the chipmaker’s cutting-edge process development lab. Court documents allege that thousands of confidential files—including pattern design rules for 3-nanometer logic fabrics—were illicitly copied and transferred to rival equipment makers. The case has raised questions about the company’s internal security protocols, but management has emphasized that the alleged breaches occurred prior to recent enhancements in its cyber-defense systems and that core production activities remain unaffected.

4. Solid Fundamentals and Shareholder Returns

In its most recent quarterly report, the foundry operator posted earnings per share of 14.32 for the quarter ended mid-November, driven by a net margin of 43.72% and a return on equity of 34.34%. The firm’s balance sheet shows a current ratio of 2.69, a quick ratio of 2.47 and a conservative debt-to-equity ratio of 0.19. Institutional investors now hold roughly 16.5% of outstanding shares, with several hedge funds modestly increasing positions in the third quarter. The company also announced a dividend increase to 0.9678 per share for the upcoming payout, representing a 17% rise over the prior distribution and translating to an annualized yield near 1.2%. The payout ratio stands at 25.85%, reflecting confidence in sustained free cash flow generation.

Sources

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