Two Point Zero sees emerging markets outperforming developed peers as global growth holds up in 2026 midyear outlook

Two Point Zero Group published its 2026 midyear global macro outlook, projecting no immediate broad, sharp downturn despite elevated geopolitical volatility.

• Geopolitics is expected to keep driving market swings, with China-US tensions and tariffs still in focus.
• Rate-cut cycles are seen delayed.
• US-Iran risks were flagged as the key uncertainty, with energy prices cited as difficult to time.
• The strategy favors emerging markets on stronger earnings momentum versus developed markets, with valuations described as comparatively cheap.
• It calls for a structural short on the medium- to long-term US dollar direction, and highlights AI and energy as core themes into 2027.