UBP says hyperscaler AI capex tops operating cash flow in 2026, fueling debt push
XLK•Order books and AI partner exposure emerge as key risk
The key risk shifts to order books: a USD 2.3 trillion backlog, about 40% tied to OpenAI and Anthropic.
OpenAI burn is seen above USD 200 billion through 2029.
Hyperscaler AI capex seen overtaking operating cash flow
Union Bancaire Privée flagged a funding squeeze as hyperscaler AI capex tops operating cash flow, projected at USD 820 billion in 2026.
Spending is forecast at USD 1-1.3 trillion in 2027, with USD 5.6 trillion of investment projected by 2030.
Balance sheets seen strong but debt capacity may be tested
Balance sheets are seen as strong, with Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon, and Meta able to add USD 400-600 billion of debt without ratings pressure.
Investor appetite is viewed as the binding constraint as spreads widen, new-issue concessions rise, and AA tech yields resemble single-A to BBB.
