UBS Lifts 2026 Investment-Grade Forecast to $1.8 Trillion on Tech Capex Surge
UBS raised its 2026 US investment-grade issuance forecast to $1.8 trillion from $1.725 trillion and lifted its technology supply estimate to $360 billion as hyperscaler capex guidance climbed by $145 billion. Amazon, Meta and Google each boosted 2026 capital expenditure outlook materially above consensus, driving projected hyperscaler capex to $770 billion.
1. Issuance Forecast Revision
UBS increased its 2026 US investment-grade issuance forecast by $75 billion, from $1.725 trillion to $1.8 trillion, and raised its technology debt supply estimate to $360 billion from $300 billion, reflecting stronger capital markets activity.
2. Hyperscaler Capex Growth
Aggregate hyperscaler capital expenditure guidance climbed by roughly $145 billion for 2026, implying an additional $40–50 billion of public debt issuance and lifting expected hyperscaler bond supply to $230–240 billion.
3. Tech Giants Boost Capex Outlook
Amazon, Meta and Google each nudged their 2026 capex guidance well above street expectations, pushing total projected hyperscaler spending to $770 billion—about 23% higher than UBS’s prior estimate.
4. Market Implications for Google
Analysts caution that despite strong demand, spreads on US investment-grade tech bonds could widen, potentially raising Google’s future borrowing costs amid increased refinancing and M&A activity.