UBS strategists have raised their long-term gold price target to $5,000 per ounce by the third quarter of 2026, citing persistent monetary policy divergence and structural demand growth. In a research note dated December 2025, UBS analysts point to continued expansion of central bank reserves and sustained physical buying in Asia as key drivers. They add that if U.S. political uncertainty intensifies—driven by fiscal deadlock or sharp economic slowdowns—the gold price could overshoot to $5,400, reflecting a 8% upside from their base case. The report highlights that global exchange-traded fund holdings remain close to all-time highs, underscoring robust investor risk hedging despite elevated real yields in major economies.

UBS expects the FTSE 100 and major continental benchmarks such as Germany’s DAX to deliver positive total returns in 2026, marking the first full-year earnings growth for Europe’s blue-chips since 2022. After a valuation-led catch-up rally that propelled the FTSE 100 up 7.2% and the DAX up 9.8% over the past 12 months, UBS forecasts mid single-digit aggregate earnings per share growth across the STOXX Europe 600 universe. The bank cites recovering corporate investment, improving consumer sentiment, and potential tailwinds from cyclical sectors—notably materials and industrials—as catalysts. UBS analysts also note that Europe’s current forward price-to-earnings multiple of 12.1x remains below its long-term average, suggesting upside if global growth holds steady.