UBS raises 2026-27 Brent price view on persistent Middle East supply disruptions
USO•UBS raised its Brent forecast to $100 per barrel for the fourth quarter of 2026, from about $80, and its 2026 average forecast to $91.57, from $83.74. It said regional oil-flow recovery remains fragile and prices could exceed $120 if disruptions worsen.
1. Higher Brent forecasts
UBS raised its Brent crude price forecasts, citing Middle East flows disrupted more than expected after the breakdown of the June US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding. The bank forecasts Brent at $100 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026, up from about $80, and an average of $91.57 for 2026, versus its previous $83.74 forecast.
2. Flow risks remain
UBS said Hormuz flows had materially recovered in recent weeks, but the improvement came at great expense and remained fragile amid ongoing Iranian attacks. It assumes gradual normalization of regional oil flows through the first half of 2027, based on a similar arrangement to the June memorandum by year-end, while factoring in a higher near-term risk premium. New attacks could push prices above $120 per barrel, while a US-Iran agreement and faster flow recovery could cause prices to fall more quickly than anticipated.
