UBS Raises Altria Price Target to $74, Sees Industry Declines Easing
UBS raised its 12-month price target on Altria to $74 from $67, maintaining a Buy rating and forecasting industry cigarette volumes to decline about 6% in Q1, the smallest drop since 2021. Altria paid $1.8 billion in Q4 dividends and plans mid-single-digit dividend growth through 2028.
1. UBS Raises Price Target
UBS analyst Faham Baig increased Altria’s price recommendation to $74 from $67 while reiterating a Buy rating, citing signs of stabilizing demand in the US cigarette market. The adjustment reflects confidence that Altria can maintain market share through pricing investments and strength in its deep-discount segment.
2. Cigarette Volume Declines Easing
Industry cigarette volumes are expected to drop about 6% in Q1, the smallest decline since 2021, as vapor segment growth slows and nicotine penetration stabilizes. UBS believes that if these trends hold, Altria’s volume declines could track roughly in line with the broader market.
3. Dividend Policy Highlights
Altria distributed $1.8 billion in dividends in Q4 and $7.0 billion for the full year, underlining a progressive policy that targets mid-single-digit annual dividend per share growth through 2028. The company raised its dividend by 3.9% in 2025, marking the 60th increase over the past 56 years.