UBS Raises ASML Price Target to €1,900, Projects 50%+ Wafer Output Growth
UBS•UBS reinstated ASML as top European semiconductor pick and raised its price target to €1,900 from €1,600, while lifting 2027-28 earnings estimates above consensus. The bank projects 2027 capacity to support over 50% annual wafer output growth versus 25-30% projected demand, and notes a 23% memory revenue CAGR through 2025.
1. Reinstatement and Price Target Increase
UBS reinstated ASML as top European semiconductor pick and raised the price target to €1,900 from €1,600. The bank also lifted its earnings per share forecasts for 2027 and 2028 above consensus levels.
2. Capacity and Growth Outlook
UBS sees ASML’s 2027 capacity supporting over 50% year-on-year wafer output growth, surpassing forecast demand growth of roughly 25-30%. Analysts note ASML trades at a 6% forward P/E premium to U.S. large-cap peers, well below its 10-year average of 84%.
3. Memory Exposure and High NA EUV
The firm highlights ASML’s strong memory exposure, with revenue CAGR of 23% between 2020 and 2025 driven by DRAM node shrinks. UBS also expects cost savings of 20-40% from High NA EUV adoption within two to three years, reinforcing its bullish outlook.
