UBS raises Brent outlook, sees oil at $110/bbl by end-2026
USO•UBS raised its Brent forecast to $110 a barrel by the end of 2026, from $100, and increased its forecasts for March, June and September 2027. It cited uncertainty over Middle Eastern supply, vessel attacks and higher shipping costs.
1. Higher price forecasts
UBS now expects Brent crude to reach $110 a barrel by the end of 2026, up from its previous forecast of $100. It also raised its forecasts for March 2027 to $95 from $90, June 2027 to $90 from $85, and September 2027 to $85 from $80.
2. Supply and shipping risks
The bank said Middle Eastern crude loadings have recovered substantially from severe disruption earlier this year, but Gulf crude and condensate port loadings remain below pre-conflict levels. It cited uncertainty around the Middle East conflict, Gulf production recovery and global oil demand, as well as a record number of reported attacks on vessels around the Strait of Hormuz in October. Middle East-to-China very large crude carrier rates have risen to $30-$40 a barrel from $1-$3 over the past decade, supporting Brent prices, UBS said.
