UBS projects U.S. rate cuts pushed to December 2026 and March 2027 despite rising Treasury yields, maintaining a year-end S&P 500 target of 7,900 and 20% EPS growth forecast. Its Global Family Office Report shows two-thirds of family offices will cut U.S. dollar exposure, shifting into emerging markets and infrastructure.
UBS pushed back expectations for aggressive Fed hikes, citing wage growth below 3.5% and anchored inflation expectations. The bank sees a high bar for further rate increases and now anticipates Fed easing to resume at the December 2026 meeting, followed by a cut in March 2027.
Following renewed inflation concerns, ten-year U.S. Treasury yields rose to 4.53% and two-year yields to 4.07%. UBS maintained a constructive equities stance, forecasting 20% S&P 500 EPS growth this year and setting a year-end index target of 7,900.
UBS surveyed 307 family office clients with an average net worth of $2.7 billion, finding that two-thirds plan to reduce U.S. dollar exposure. Nearly half of respondents already view dollar holdings as excessive across asset classes.
Family offices intend to increase allocations to emerging market stocks and infrastructure assets, with multishoring strategies gaining traction. Geographic focus is shifting towards Asia-Pacific and Western Europe as portfolios are rebalanced.
