FICO’s analysis of November 2025 UK credit card data reveals that average monthly spend rose by 2.6% from October to £785, reflecting normal pre-Christmas patterns, but remained 2.4% below the same month last year. This suggests that, despite seasonal promotions and holiday shopping, consumer discretionary outlays are contracting compared with 2024 levels, an important signal for issuers forecasting fourth-quarter revenue growth from interchange fees and interest income.

Average active card balances climbed 0.8% month-on-month to £1,915 and are 5.0% higher than November 2024, reversing a multi-month plateau. Payment rates dropped by 2.8 percentage points to 33.4% of balances—the lowest since 2021—and are down 7.4 points year-on-year. This combination of higher debt loads and slower pay-downs points to mounting household financial pressure that could drive higher interest revenue but also elevate credit risk for lenders.

The share of accounts over their credit limit increased by 6.4% from October and 5.9% versus last November, while average overlimit spend held steady at £90. Early-stage delinquencies (one missed payment) fell by 6.9% month-on-month but remain 1.7% above last year’s level, whereas more severe delinquencies (three missed payments) rose 2.2% month-on-month and 3.5% year-on-year. These trends signal that a growing subset of customers is pushed beyond approved limits and into deeper arrears, raising potential charge-off rates.

FICO warns that with payment rates at multi-year lows and delinquent balances up across the board, issuers should implement enhanced monitoring and proactive outreach to customers exhibiting early signs of distress. Given that recovering higher balances with more intensive collection efforts could strain operational budgets, lenders must balance risk mitigation with compliance under the Consumer Duty, ensuring solutions help customers manage debt without triggering further default.