In the first nine months of 2025, UPS reported a 7.5% year-over-year decline in average daily package volume, down to 19.97 million units from 22.42 million in 2024. Total revenue for that period fell to $64.18 billion, a 29.5% drop from the prior full-year figure of $91.07 billion. Operating margins contracted to 6.8%, compared with 9.8% in 2024, driven by higher labor costs following the new Teamsters contracts, ongoing digital investments and divestiture-related charges. Diluted EPS declined to $4.46 for the first nine months, versus $6.75 in the prior year period, as management shifted away from lower-margin Amazon deliveries and increased average revenue per package by 6.3%.

In late 2025, the Federal Aviation Administration grounded the MD-11 freighter fleet, representing approximately 9% of UPS’s air capacity, after a fatal crash in Louisville. The grounding occurred during peak holiday shipping season, forcing UPS to reallocate cargo onto trucks and partner carriers. Management estimates the rerouting added $150 million in incremental costs between November and December 2025 and will compress fourth-quarter operating margins by roughly 50 basis points. Executives have warned that full-year logistics expenses could rise by $300 million to $400 million depending on the duration of the grounding.

UPS will release its fourth-quarter 2025 results on January 27, 2026. Analysts project a 3% year-over-year revenue decline for 2025, with full-year EPS down 3% as well. For 2026, consensus forecasts call for flat revenue growth and a 7% increase in EPS, assuming cost-reduction measures yield $3.5 billion in savings and the MD-11 fleet returns to service by mid-year. Management plans to expand higher-margin segments—healthcare, small-and-medium-business and B2B deliveries—while further automating hubs and right-sizing its workforce to restore operating margins toward the 10% level over the next twelve to eighteen months.