Unsupervised Austin Robotaxi Launch Sparks 4% Rally as Autopilot Ends

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Tesla began unsupervised robotaxi rides in Austin on January 22 using FSD software without human safety drivers, triggering a 4% stock rally. Tesla discontinued Autopilot in North America, replacing it with a $99/month FSD subscription Musk plans to raise, while Barclays set a $360 price target for roughly 20% downside.

1. Tesla Discontinues Autopilot to Drive Full Self-Driving Adoption

On Thursday Tesla removed its basic driver-assistance system, Autopilot, from new vehicle configurations in the U.S. and Canada. The move follows a California judge’s ruling on deceptive marketing and forces customers toward the company’s more advanced Full Self-Driving (Supervised) software. Starting February 14, the one-time $8,000 purchase option will be retired in favor of a $99 monthly subscription, a rate CEO Elon Musk has warned will rise as capabilities improve. The decision underscores Tesla’s ambition to convert more buyers to its high-margin software offering and to hit its long-term goal of 10 million active FSD subscriptions by 2035.

2. Unsupervised Robotaxi Rides Begin in Austin

Tesla has kicked off the first phase of its robotaxi service in Austin, Texas, operating a mixed fleet of supervised and unsupervised Model Y SUVs under a state transportation-network permit. A small number of vehicles now run without a human safety monitor, though they remain trailed by company-driven chase cars for backup. The Texas rollout follows a summer 2025 pilot that included supervised rides in the Bay Area and expands Tesla’s presence against established rivals such as Waymo and Baidu. Management has indicated the ratio of driverless units will grow over the coming months as internal data meets commercial safety thresholds.

3. Barclays Sees Downside Despite Rally on Robotaxi News

In the wake of the unsupervised robotaxi announcement, Tesla shares jumped over 4%, yet Barclays analyst Dan Levy lowered his 12-month price target to $360, implying nearly 20% potential downside from prevailing levels. The bank cited continued vehicle price-cut pressures, lengthening software-development timelines, and delivery declines as headwinds. Investors remain torn between bullish long-term autonomy prospects and skepticism over regulatory approvals, public readiness and ultimate economics of driverless ride-hailing.

4. Q4 Earnings Preview – Energy Unit Growth and Margin Watch

Tesla will report fourth-quarter results on January 28, with particular scrutiny on its Energy Generation and Storage division, which deployed a record 14.2 GWh in Q4 and 46.7 GWh for the full year, up 49% versus 2024. Automotive deliveries fell to 418,227 in Q4, down 16% year-over-year, and total 2025 vehicle sales slipped about 9%. Investors will focus on whether strong energy margins can offset automotive gross margin compression from ongoing price cuts, and on management’s outlook for vehicle volume recovery and potential regulatory green lights for FSD in Europe and China.

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