U.S. defense officials have drafted contingency scenarios for renewed operations against Iran, comprising intensified aerial campaigns targeting command structures and core infrastructure. Israel’s armed forces are on high alert, awaiting final authorization from the White House to initiate coordinated strikes.

Proposed options include the tactical seizure of Kharg Island—Iran’s principal crude export hub—and deployment of ground commandos to extract enriched uranium from underground facilities. Such missions would require thousands of support personnel and carry significant risk of combat casualties.

Seizing Kharg Island or launching expanded bombings could further disrupt exports via the Strait of Hormuz, where monthly flows plunged from 93 million barrels to 10 million barrels in April. A renewed supply squeeze would likely drive up global energy prices and raise logistics expenses.

Iran detained the Honduran-flagged Sinoguards Marine Security vessel 38 nautical miles off Fujairah for a documentation and compliance inspection. The incident marks heightened maritime risk and is expected to push up shipping insurance premiums for vessels in the region.