US gas boom risks leaving Mexico on energy-transition sidelines
UNG•Mexico gets roughly 46% of its total energy supply from natural gas, much of it imported from the United States. The column warns that rising US LNG exports and slower production growth could push prices higher and expose Mexico’s gas-dependent economy to greater costs.
1. A gas-heavy energy system
Access to abundant, low-cost US shale gas helped Mexico expand its energy supply by more than 30% from 2000 while supporting industrial growth. The country built much of its energy system around natural gas rather than making large investments in renewables, batteries and transmission networks.
2. Dependence deepens
Natural gas accounts for roughly 46% of Mexico’s total energy supply, the highest share among the five largest net importers. Mexico’s domestic gas output has declined for years, and the country became a major net importer from 2000, while new gas-fired power stations have reinforced its reliance on US supplies.
3. Price risks ahead
US LNG exports averaged around 15 billion cubic feet per day in 2025 and are projected to reach roughly 27 billion by 2040, according to the US Energy Information Administration. The column says expanding exports and demand from data centres, industry and power plants, alongside slower production growth, could put upward pressure on prices; higher costs would affect Mexican electricity, industry and household energy bills.
