US holiday sales growth to speed up as shoppers stay resilient, NRF forecasts
XLY•US holiday sales are projected to rise 4.2% to $1.013 trillion in November and December, up from 3.1% growth last year, the National Retail Federation forecast.
1. Holiday sales forecast
The National Retail Federation forecast that US sales in November and December will increase 4.2% to $1.013 trillion, compared with a 3.1% rise to $972 billion last year. The forecast uses economic modeling incorporating consumer spending, employment, wages and historical retail sales, and excludes automobile, gasoline and restaurant sales.
2. Spending pressures
NRF President and CEO Matthew Shay said the forecast reflects confidence that consumers will prioritize the holiday season while remaining mindful of their budgets. Walmart, Kohl's and American Eagle have flagged pressure on consumer spending as higher household costs make shoppers more selective.
3. Survey estimates
A Deloitte survey of about 4,000 US consumers found average household holiday spending could rise 4% to $1,654. Retail spending is projected to increase 10% to $988, while spending on holiday activities is expected to fall 4% to $666; 79% of shoppers planning to gift an experience also aim to pair it with a physical item.
