US natural gas supply growth to outpace demand this winter, NGSA says
UNG•US dry gas production is expected to average 112.5 billion cubic feet per day this winter, up roughly 2.5 bcf/d from last year, while total demand is forecast to grow 1.6 bcf/d under normal weather assumptions.
1. Supply and demand outlook
The Natural Gas Supply Association expects US natural gas supply growth to outpace demand this winter despite rising LNG exports. Dry gas production is forecast to average 112.5 bcf/d, roughly 7 bcf/d above the three-winter average.
2. Storage and prices
Storage is projected to start the 2026-2027 heating season near 3.85 trillion cubic feet and end the withdrawal season near 1.95 trillion cubic feet in late March 2027. Henry Hub forwards price gas this winter at an average of $3.43 per million British thermal units, down from $4.51/MMBtu last winter.
3. Demand drivers
Residential, commercial and industrial use is expected to remain steady under normal weather assumptions, leaving LNG exports and power generation as the primary drivers of winter demand.
