US Plains HRW wheat basis steady to weak as rains cross Plains
WEAT•Hard red winter wheat basis bids were steady to weaker in the southern U.S. Plains as lower futures limited farmer sales. The USDA raised its 2026 U.S. wheat production estimate to 1.534 billion bushels and HRW production to 466 million bushels.
1. Basis and weather
Hard red winter wheat basis bids were steady to weaker in the southern U.S. Plains on Wednesday, while a drop in futures kept farmer sales to a minimum. The posted basis fell 5 cents per bushel at an elevator in Catoosa, Oklahoma. Storms crossed Kansas, Nebraska and parts of Oklahoma, bringing moisture to fields where the 2027 winter wheat crop is being planted.
2. USDA estimates
The USDA raised its estimate of total U.S. 2026 wheat production to 1.534 billion bushels, from 1.531 billion previously; analysts had expected a slight reduction. Its estimate for the 2026 hard red winter wheat harvest rose to 466 million bushels from 463 million. Quarterly U.S. wheat stocks on September 1 were 1.846 billion bushels, down from 2.134 billion a year earlier and below analysts’ average estimate of 1.872 billion.
3. Futures and premiums
Kansas City December hard red winter wheat futures settled 10 cents lower at $7.33 per bushel, after touching their lowest level since August 12. Protein premiums for railcar wheat to and through Kansas City fell 2 cents per bushel for grades with 11.8% and 12.0% protein; premiums for other grades were unchanged.
