US power use to beat record highs in 2026 and 2027 as AI use surges, EIA says
XLU•Natural gas sales forecasts
The EIA projected that gas sales in 2026 would slide to 12.5 billion cubic feet per day for residential consumers and 9.5 bcfd for commercial customers, but rise to 23.9 bcfd for industrial customers and 36.8 bcfd for power generation.
Those figures compare with all-time highs of 14.3 bcfd in 1996 for residential consumers, 9.9 bcfd in 2025 for commercial customers, 23.8 bcfd in 1973 for industrial customers, and 36.8 bcfd in 2024 for power generation.
Generation mix shifts toward renewables
As renewable output rises, the EIA said the share of power generation from coal will slide from 17% in 2025 to 16% in 2026 and 14% in 2027, while the share of natural gas will hold at 40% in 2026 and 2027, the same as in 2025.
The percentage of renewable generation will rise from around 24% in 2025 to 25% in 2026 and 27% in 2027, while nuclear power's share will hold at 18% in 2026 and 2027, the same as in 2025, according to the outlook.
West South Central region leads sales growth
"Despite a pause in connecting new data center projects in Texas to the grid, the West South Central region accounts for the largest share of total electricity sales growth in our forecast," EIA said in the report.
The EIA forecast that power sales in 2026 will rise to 1,527 billion kWh for residential consumers, 1,542 billion kWh for commercial customers and 1,059 billion kWh for industrial customers.
Those forecasts compare with all-time highs of 1,515 billion kWh for residential consumers and 1,493 billion kWh for commercial customers in 2025 and 1,064 billion kWh for industrial customers in 2000.
