US sees Chinese invasion of Taiwan unlikely next year despite 2027 timeline, sources say
FXI•US officials believe a Chinese invasion of Taiwan before 2028 is increasingly unlikely, despite Xi Jinping’s instruction for the military to be ready by 2027. They cite military-readiness delays and Beijing’s interest in Taiwan’s 2028 election.
1. Invasion timing assessment
US officials believe Beijing is more likely to consider using force in 2028 and beyond, people familiar with US thinking said. They said some Chinese officials hope Taiwan’s 2028 election could produce a government more amenable to Beijing; if the Democratic Progressive Party wins a fourth consecutive term, and especially if President Lai Ching-te is reelected, one official said 2028 could become “pretty sporty.”
2. Readiness and election factors
Sources cited delays in military readiness linked to Xi’s anti-corruption campaign. They said China’s military did not accomplish as much as intended last year, and that investigations and expulsions have affected senior military leadership. The sources also offered mixed assessments of whether Beijing would weigh the 2028 US presidential election in deciding on military action.
3. 2027 benchmark
The assessment updates years of US officials’ understanding that Xi wanted the military ready by 2027 to potentially take Taiwan by force. Analysts have described that benchmark as a measure of military preparedness, rather than a timeline for invasion. China has not publicly confirmed a 2027 readiness order and says it seeks reunification; it has not ruled out using force.
