US weekly jobless claims near 57-year lows as labor market regains footing
SPY•Initial US jobless claims fell 1,000 to 197,000, near levels last seen in 1969, while continuing claims rose 2,000 to 1.719 million. The report suggested the labor market was regaining footing and the unemployment rate remained steady at 4.1%.
1. Claims remain low
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits fell 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 in the week ended September 19, below economists’ forecast of 201,000. The four-week average dropped 1,750 to 202,250. Economists said seasonal adjustment issues may have contributed to the decline, while the underlying trend remained consistent with low layoffs.
2. Continuing claims edge up
Continuing claims increased 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.719 million in the week ended September 12, remaining near levels last seen in 2023. They fell between the August and September survey weeks for the unemployment rate. The Chicago Fed forecast the September jobless rate would remain at 4.1%.
3. Rate expectations
The article said labor market stability supported financial market expectations of another Federal Reserve rate increase before year end. Markets priced in a roughly 64.2% chance of an increase next month, the article said. Economists cited uncertainty related to the Iran war and import tariffs, as well as worker shortages, as constraints on hiring.
