Valero Energy Q3 Earnings Beat by $0.51, Analysts Lift Targets to $220

VLOVLO

Valero Energy reported Q3 EPS of $3.66, beating consensus by $0.51, on revenue of $32.17 billion versus expectations of $28.80 billion. Following the results, analysts at JPMorgan, Wells Fargo and Jefferies raised their price targets to $200, $220 and $194 respectively, lifting the consensus target to $183.00.

1. Institutional Investors Increase Stakes

During the third quarter, several institutional investors boosted their positions in Valero Energy. Benjamin Edwards Inc. raised its holdings by 17.3%, acquiring an additional 2,721 shares to reach 18,440 shares valued at approximately 3.14 million. Highline Wealth Partners LLC saw the largest percentage increase among those reported, lifting its stake by 70.2% to 160 shares. Private Trust Co. NA added 65 shares for a 2.0% gain, while Broadway Wealth Solutions Inc. and Salomon & Ludwin LLC increased their stakes by 3.8% and 17.0%, respectively. These moves contributed to institutional and hedge fund ownership of roughly 78.7% of the company’s outstanding shares.

2. Insider Transaction Lowers Executive Ownership

On November 21, the company’s chief financial officer executed a sale of 9,933 shares, marking a 6.9% reduction in his personal stake. The transaction, disclosed in an SEC filing, left the executive with 134,196 shares. Insider ownership now stands at just 0.04% of total shares outstanding, highlighting a continued trend of minimal executive equity concentration compared with peer integrated energy firms.

3. Analysts Adjust Ratings and Targets

Several major brokerage firms updated their outlooks for Valero Energy during the past two months. Morgan Stanley moved to an equal-weight stance while raising its target price, and Erste Group Bank initiated coverage with a buy recommendation. JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Wells Fargo & Company each lifted their target valuations, maintaining overweight and overweight-equivalent ratings, respectively. Jefferies Financial Group also increased its target and reiterated a buy view. Across the board, three analysts rate the shares as a strong buy, nine as a buy and eight as a hold, resulting in a consensus Moderate Buy rating and an aggregate target that sits above the current market level.

4. Third-Quarter Performance and Dividend Update

In the third quarter, Valero reported revenue of $32.17 billion, exceeding consensus by over $3 billion, while delivering earnings per share of $3.66 against expectations near $3.15. Net margin remained modest at 1.21%, and return on equity reached 8.69%. Year-over-year revenue dipped by 2.2%, reflecting global refining headwinds. The board approved a quarterly dividend of $1.13 per share, representing an annualized payout of $4.52 and a yield above 2.4%, with a payout ratio approaching 94.4% of trailing earnings.

Sources

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