Vance's fraud crackdown may raise costs for US health insurers, enrollees
UNH•The administration says it removed 760,000 enrollees it believed did not exist or were fraudulently signed up, with another 400,000 under review. Analysts and investors say removing healthy members could leave insurers with a costlier risk pool while 2027 premiums are already locked.
1. Crackdown and enrollment
The Trump administration says it removed 760,000 Affordable Care Act enrollees it believed did not exist or were fraudulently signed up by brokers, and is reviewing another 400,000. It is also banning hundreds of brokers and will not accept new brokers. Policy experts said the changes could affect legitimate members who did not use their plans because they were healthy.
2. Costs and premiums
Analysts and investors said losing low-medical-use enrollees could leave insurers with a sicker mix of members and pressure profits in the remaining months of 2026 and in 2027. Premiums for 2027 have already been filed, approved and locked, while insurers requested a median increase of 15% for those plans, according to a KFF analysis. Three investors and two policy experts said insurers will likely set prices higher in 2028 to reflect enrollment losses.
3. Insurer exposure
The article said the news weighed on health insurance shares, with Centene down 1.5%, Molina 6.5%, Elevance 4.2% and UnitedHealth 2.6% in the week since the announcement. Three investors said insurers with businesses beyond Obamacare, such as UnitedHealthcare, may better navigate the changes. Brokers bring in 75% of marketplace enrollees, according to government data released in 2026.
