Wall St week ahead: Jobs report, inflation data to test US rate path, economic strength
SPY•Investors will assess the September jobs report, expected to show 100,000 jobs added and 4.2% unemployment, and Wednesday’s PCE data for clues about inflation and the Federal Reserve’s rate path.
1. Jobs and inflation in focus
Investors will look to the September employment report, due October 2, and Wednesday’s personal consumption expenditures price index data to assess the economy and the outlook for interest rates. The Fed raised rates by a quarter percentage point on September 16 and signaled another increase before year-end.
2. Payroll expectations and rates
A poll of economists put expected job growth at 100,000 and unemployment at 4.2%. A stronger-than-expected report could strengthen the case for another rate increase in October, while investors will also watch whether PCE inflation is trending lower. Core PCE rose 3.3% in the 12 months through July, above the Fed’s 2% target.
3. Yields and market breadth
The 30-year Treasury yield reached its highest level in more than 20 years, while the 10-year yield rose well above 5%. Eight of 11 S&P 500 sectors were down for September, and an equal-weight version of the index had fallen about 4%; the broader index was little changed for the month and up about 13% in 2026.
