Walmart Beats Q3 Estimates with $179.5B Revenue, Guides FY26 EPS at $2.58–2.63

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Walmart reported Q3 EPS of $0.62 versus analysts’ $0.60 estimate on $179.5 billion revenue, beating consensus and delivering 5.8% year-over-year top-line growth. The retailer set FY 2026 EPS guidance at $2.58–2.63, above the $2.55 consensus, while CEO sold $2.31 million of shares, indicating mixed sentiment.

1. Analyst Ratings and Price Targets Update

Over the past month, five major brokerages revised their outlooks on Walmart. BTIG Research maintained its Buy rating and set a $125 target, while KeyCorp reiterated an Overweight stance with a $128 objective. Deutsche Bank downgraded its rating to Hold and lowered its target to $119. Piper Sandler upgraded its target from $111 to $123, reaffirming an Overweight rating, and DA Davidson assigned a Buy rating with a $130 target. In aggregate, 32 analysts rate the stock at Buy and two at Hold, implying a consensus upside of roughly 5% from current levels based on their average target of $123.20.

2. Q3 Earnings Beat and Fiscal 2026 Guidance

In the quarter ended November 20, Walmart reported adjusted EPS of $0.62, surpassing consensus estimates by $0.02. Revenue rose 5.8% year-over-year to $179.5 billion, topping the analysts’ forecast of $175.2 billion. The company achieved a net margin of 3.26% and a return on equity of 21.31%. For fiscal 2026, management issued EPS guidance between $2.58 and $2.63, compared with a consensus expectation of $2.55, reflecting confidence in continued sales growth and margin improvement across both its brick-and-mortar and e-commerce segments.

3. Institutional Stake Changes

CIBC Asset Management increased its position by 0.7%, acquiring 5,434 additional shares to hold 820,277 shares valued at $84.5 million at quarter end. Revolve Wealth Partners, Atlas Legacy Advisors, Meridian Wealth Partners, Hemington Wealth Management and Boomfish Wealth Group collectively added small stakes ranging from 96 to 99 shares each, bringing the company’s total institutional ownership to 26.76%. These incremental increases underscore ongoing confidence among large investors in Walmart’s defensive retail positioning and omnichannel growth prospects.

4. Insider Transactions and Market Sentiment

In mid-January, CEO C. Douglas McMillon reduced his holdings by approximately 19,416 shares, a 0.45% stake decline valued at roughly $2.3 million on the date of sale. EVP Daniel Danker and EVP Donna Morris also sold a combined 13,749 shares, cutting their positions by 1.80% and 1.72%, respectively. While insider dispositions can raise short-term sentiment concerns, the magnitude—representing 0.10% of total shares—remains modest. Combined with recent short-term share weakness reported on January 22, these transactions have introduced a slight negative tilt to sentiment, despite the company’s solid fundamentals.

Sources

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