Walmart Q4 EPS Forecast $0.73 on $189.9B Sales, E-Commerce Profitable
Walmart shares have risen 20.2% year-to-date, outperforming the Magnificent 7 group (-5.4%), the S&P 500 (-0.4%), Amazon (-13.9%) and Target (+18.2%). The company forecasts Q4 EPS of $0.73 on $189.9 billion in revenue (YoY +10.6% and +5.2%), driven by profitable e-commerce (15% of ex-gasoline sales), third-party fulfillment and advertising growth.
1. Year-to-Date Outperformance
Walmart shares are up 20.2% year-to-date, outperforming the Magnificent 7 group (down 5.4%), the S&P 500 (down 0.4%), Amazon (down 13.9%) and Target (up 18.2%). This momentum reflects broad investor confidence compared with peers in brick-and-mortar and e-commerce.
2. Digital Business & Market Share Gains
The company’s digital business has enabled new revenue streams in third-party fulfillment and advertising, complementing its core grocery and essentials focus. Management continues to note market-share gains across all income segments, particularly as higher-income households trade down due to inflation.
3. Q4 Earnings Estimates
Analysts expect fourth-quarter EPS of $0.73 and revenues of $189.9 billion, representing year-over-year increases of 10.6% and 5.2%, respectively. Same-store sales (ex-fuel) are forecast to rise 4.17%, slightly below the prior quarter’s 4.4% gain but ahead of year-ago levels.
4. E-Commerce Profitability and Longer-Term Outlook
U.S. e-commerce is now profitable and represents roughly 15% of ex-gasoline sales, with targets to more than double that share. A high proportion of domestically sourced products and a 60% grocery revenue weighting provide insulation against tariffs and bolster price competitiveness.