Walmart Set for 4.5% US Sales Growth with Over 25% E-Commerce Surge
Analysts expect Walmart to report a 4.5% rise in US comparable sales propelled by over 25% e-commerce growth, offsetting softer in-store health and pharmacy revenue from fair-pricing rules and GLP-1 adoption lags. Operating income is projected at the high end of the 6%–8% target range, with discussions over a $0.03 EPS boost, guidance and $200 million in energy costs.
1. Q1 Sales and E-Commerce Growth
Analysts forecast a 4.5% increase in US comparable sales for Walmart's first quarter, largely powered by more than 25% growth in the company's e-commerce channel. This digital strength is expected to counterbalance a slowdown in physical store revenue, underscoring the retailer's online momentum.
2. Physical Store Headwinds
In-store performance is anticipated to lag, particularly within the health and wellness categories and pharmacy segment. Pressure from Maximum Fair Pricing legislation on prescriptions and slower uptake of oral GLP-1 therapies are cited as key drivers of this softness.
3. Operating Income Outlook
Despite these headwinds, Walmart’s US operating income is projected to grow at the high end of its long-term 6% to 8% target range, with the international segment also expected to deliver similar profitability gains. Sam’s Club earnings are forecast to remain flat year-over-year, reflecting tougher prior-period comparisons.
4. Guidance Debate and Energy Costs
Debate centers on whether to build an estimated $0.03 EPS upside into full-year guidance or maintain existing outlook amid macro uncertainties. Additionally, rising energy costs—potentially adding $200 million in quarterly expenses—represent a near-term wildcard, while longer-term valuation discussions hinge on scaling Walmart's ‘second profit and loss’ business.