War widens in the Black Sea in a test of NATO red lines
TLT•Strikes on Black Sea shipping near Romania and Bulgaria have escalated, prompting NATO to say it will deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones. Ambrey Analytics counted 317 vessels hit in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov from May to October, more than four times the 74 in the previous half-year.
1. Strikes near NATO members
After seven strikes on cargo ships near Romania and Bulgaria in October, NATO said it would deploy maritime patrol aircraft, radars and drones to bolster its eastern flank. Another ship was struck outside Romanian waters three days later, and a Greek container ship was sunk by naval drones in Bulgaria’s exclusive economic zone the following week. Military analysts said they had little doubt the attacks were Russian, while Russia denied targeting Ukraine’s neighbours.
2. Shipping under pressure
Ambrey Analytics analyst Tomas Alexa counted 317 merchant and other vessels hit in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov between May and October, compared with 74 in the previous half-year. Ukraine carried out 137 attacks on ships in the third quarter, compared with 92 by Russia; in October, Russia carried out 38 strikes compared with five by Ukraine. The attacks have disrupted grain and oil exports, and both countries have sought alternative routes.
3. Grain exports fall
Russia exported 0.3 million metric tons of grain through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov in September, down from 4.74 million a year earlier, according to Russian export data cited in the article. Ukraine’s port grain exports fell to 0.81 million metric tons from 2.1 million in September last year. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy warned that a disruption could lead to an agricultural crisis.
