Waste Management Q4 Revenue Up 7.1% to $6.31B, 2026 EBITDA Growth Forecast
Waste Management reported Q4 revenue of $6.31 billion, up 7.1% year-over-year, and adjusted operating EBITDA of $1.97 billion with a 31.3% margin. Full-year 2025 revenue rose 14.2% to $25.20b and adjusted operating EBITDA grew 15.5% to $7.58b; 2026 guidance targets 5.2% revenue growth and 6.2% EBITDA expansion.
1. Q4 Earnings Miss and Year-Ago Comparison
Waste Management reported Q4 earnings of $1.93 per share, falling short of the Zacks Consensus estimate of $1.95 and up from $1.70 a year earlier. Revenue for the quarter rose 7.1% year-over-year to $6.31 billion, driven by 6.3% core price gains in Collection and Disposal and a 3.8% yield improvement. Operating EBITDA reached $1.925 billion, up 22.5% versus Q4 2024, but missed analysts’ forecasts by $50 million on an adjusted basis. The Legacy Business delivered $1.838 billion of EBITDA at a 32.3% margin, while Healthcare Solutions contributed $87 million at a 14.1% margin.
2. Full-Year 2025 Financial Highlights
For the full year ended December 31, 2025, Waste Management achieved revenue of $25.20 billion, a 14.2% increase from 2024. Adjusted operating EBITDA grew 15.5% to $7.58 billion, yielding a record full-year margin of 30.1%. Net income rose 10.1% on an adjusted basis to $3.03 billion, and free cash flow increased 26.8% to $2.94 billion, supported by $6.04 billion of operating cash flow. The Company invested $400 million in solid waste and recycling acquisitions and completed seven renewable natural gas facilities and nine recycling automation projects.
3. 2026 Guidance and Strategic Priorities
Management forecasts 2026 revenue of $26.43 billion to $26.63 billion, reflecting growth of approximately 5.2%, and adjusted operating EBITDA of $8.15 billion to $8.25 billion, a 6.2% increase on a comparable basis. Core pricing is expected between 5.4% and 5.8%, yield of 3.2% to 3.6%, and volume growth of 0.2% to 0.6%. Free cash flow is projected to grow nearly 30% to $3.75 billion–$3.85 billion. The Board intends to return roughly $3.5 billion to shareholders through dividends and repurchases, while targeting a net leverage ratio of 2.5x–3.0x by year end.