What is a 'super El Niño' and how will it affect the weather?
SPY•The developing Pacific El Niño could become one of the strongest on record, with the WMO expecting peak intensity by early 2027. The Climate Impact Lab estimates it could cause 451,000 excess deaths by February and put nearly 50 million people at risk of acute hunger by the end of 2027.
1. A record temperature anomaly
Equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures this month reached 3.05 degrees Celsius above normal, the highest El Niño temperature anomaly since records began, NOAA data showed. NOAA formally declared El Niño conditions in June; the WMO forecast the event would intensify into “a very strong event,” though it does not officially use the term “super.”
2. Weather effects vary by region
El Niño tends to raise global temperatures and disrupt rainfall, bringing drought to some regions and heavy rain to others. Southern South America and parts of Central Asia typically get more rain, while southern Africa, Central America and Australia tend to dry out. It can also intensify heatwaves, including in Europe, and increase hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific.
3. Deaths and food risks
The Climate Impact Lab estimated the coming El Niño could cause 451,000 excess heat-related deaths, including 31,400 in Nigeria, 19,300 in Indonesia and 17,600 in Sudan. The researchers said emergency measures could save tens of thousands of lives. U.N. World Food Programme forecasts put nearly 50 million people at risk of acute hunger by the end of 2027.
