White Falcon Flags EPAM’s 12.8% Q4 Revenue Rise with 11x EBITDA Valuation
White Falcon Capital’s Q4 2025 letter highlighted EPAM Systems, whose shares slid 22.6% one month and 27.3% over 52 weeks, trading at 11x EBITDA and posting Q4 revenue of $1.4 billion, up 12.8%. It forecasts mid-teens revenue growth and high-teens earnings growth on rising AI and cloud demand.
1. White Falcon Highlights EPAM’s AI Position
White Falcon Capital described EPAM Systems as an engineering-driven IT services firm moving from AI laggard to potential gainer as enterprises modernize core systems before AI deployment. The firm noted EPAM’s ability to integrate AI and productivity enhancements without adding headcount through partnerships like the recent deal with Cursor.
2. Q4 2025 Financials and Stock Performance
EPAM reported Q4 revenue of $1.4 billion, up 12.8% year-over-year, while shares plunged 22.6% in the past month and 27.3% over 52 weeks. The stock trades at 11x estimated EBITDA and 17x EPS, with a market capitalization of about $8 billion and growing hedge fund interest rising to 44 portfolios.
3. Growth Outlook and Valuation
The fund projects mid-teens annual revenue growth and high-teens earnings gains over the next several years, driven by cloud migrations, AI implementations and custom development demand. If EPAM executes on this trajectory, its share price is expected to broadly track its earnings growth.