Why traders may want to watch real estate around midterms
XLRE•Since 1926, the S&P 500 real estate sector has risen in October and November of U.S. midterm election years 18 out of 25 times, or 72%. Winning years averaged a 10.2% gain, and nine advances exceeded 10%.
1. Midterm pattern
Historical patterns show the S&P 500 real estate sector rose during October and November in 18 of the 25 midterm election years since 1926. Gains averaged 10.2% in those winning years, with nine advances exceeding 10%.
2. Trading view
SentimenTrader analyst Jay Kaeppel said identifying the exact bottom has been “a fool's errand.” He said long-term investors should wait for clearer signs of a reversal, while aggressive short-term traders willing to accept above-average risk might consider positioning for a rise through the end of November.
