Wolfe Research sketched three potential timelines running through November, with a base-case war stretching through April ending in an informal ceasefire that leaves loose ends unresolved and keeps energy prices moderately elevated. The worst-case involves open-ended ground operations and additional US assets, which could sustain oil above $100/bbl, while the best-case sees WTI falling under $70/bbl by July.

President Trump posted on social media urging other nations to assume responsibility for patrolling the Strait of Hormuz, where missile and drone attacks from Iran have halted roughly 20% of global oil shipments. European Union members refused to commit warships, prolonging the disruption in a vital transit lane for crude.

These scenarios create a wide range of outcomes for WTI futures volatility: de-escalation should lead to gradual normalization of prices in line with futures curves, while any escalation could trigger sharp price spikes above $100/bbl. Traders will monitor signs of ceasefire progress and allied naval deployments for cues on near-term price direction.