WTI Crude Drops 6% as Iran Negotiations Slash Risk Premium
WTI crude futures plunged 6% last week as Iran’s readiness to negotiate with world powers slashed the Middle East risk premium. OPEC+ delivery shortfalls and supply constraints provided some support, but rising U.S. onshore storage ahead of the EIA inventory report weighed on prices.
1. WTI Oil Climbs on U.S. Navy Drone Shootdown
WTI crude oil futures surged by more than 2 percent in the session following reports that a U.S. Navy warship intercepted and destroyed an unmanned Iranian drone approaching the USS Eisenhower carrier group in the Gulf of Oman. Market participants attributed the rally to a renewed geopolitical risk premium, with risk indicators for Middle East supply disruptions rising to their highest levels since November. The price uptick marked the third consecutive day of gains, pushing WTI into a steep backwardation structure versus contracts three months out, signaling tight near-term supply expectations.
2. Rising U.S. Inventories Cushion Upside Risk
Despite the geopolitical jitters, weekly official data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration showed a 7.9 million-barrel build in domestic crude inventories, the largest single-week increase since April. Stockpiles at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub climbed by 2.3 million barrels, easing backwardation pressures slightly by the close. Analysts at Primary Vision noted that elevated onshore storage levels—now at 460 million barrels—could cap further gains unless Middle East tensions intensify.
3. Technical and Sentiment Drivers Support Momentum
Speculative positioning data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission revealed that non-commercial traders increased their net long WTI positions by 12,000 contracts last week, taking total net length to 220,000 contracts, the highest since mid-December. Technical charting shows WTI has now broken above its 50-day moving average for the first time in six weeks, while open interest across the front three contracts rose by 5 percent. Brokers surveyed by Bloomberg Report remain bullish over the next four weeks, with 16 of 24 respondents forecasting further gains provided regional hostilities persist.