YPF Maintains $3.5B Vaca Muerta Capex, Eni-XRG LNG JV and Price Target Hike
YPF plans to maintain $3.5 billion capex in Vaca Muerta, targeting over 200,000 bpd of shale oil production this year. JPMorgan raised YPF’s price target from $51 to $54 and the company signed a JV with Eni and XRG to develop a 12 mtpa LNG export project aiming for FID in H2 2026.
1. Vaca Muerta Investment Strategy
YPF will sustain upstream capex of $3.5 billion in the Vaca Muerta shale basin this year, structured to withstand crude prices between $55 and $70 per barrel. The company aims to boost shale oil output to over 200,000 barrels per day, up from 170,000 bpd in Q3 2025, following cost reductions and $1 billion in asset sales.
2. JPMorgan Raises Price Target
On February 12, JPMorgan analyst Rodolfo Angele lifted YPF’s price target by $3 to $54 while maintaining an Overweight rating, implying more than 44% upside from current levels. The revision reflects confidence in YPF’s de-risked capital expenditure profile and the accelerating production growth trajectory in its core shale assets.
3. LNG Joint Venture Accelerates Export Plans
YPF formalized a joint development agreement with Italy’s Eni and UAE-based XRG to advance a 12 mtpa Argentina LNG project via two floating liquefaction facilities. The partners will complete front-end engineering and design work and aim for a final investment decision in the second half of 2026, positioning Argentina as a long-term global LNG supplier.