If you want to understand what is the projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call, you need to look beyond a single consensus number. Analyst price targets for Target Corporation span a wide range, reflecting genuine disagreement about whether the company's turnaround efforts in digital growth, merchandising, and margin management will pay off. For options traders in particular, that spread of opinion creates opportunity, but only if you know how to read the underlying metrics and match them to the right strategy.
Key takeaways
- Analyst consensus targets for TGT vary widely, and the gap between bullish and bearish cases tells you as much as the average number itself
- Options traders can use implied volatility percentile and the Greeks to position around earnings and price target revisions without making a binary bet
- A simple prompt asking for a projected target gives you a number; a structured prompt asking for context around margins, traffic, and inventory gives you an edge
- Strike selection, time decay, and delta exposure matter more than getting the direction right when trading options on a stock with wide analyst disagreement
- Comparing current implied volatility to historical IV helps you decide whether options are cheap or expensive before you put capital at risk
Why earnings-based price targets matter for TGT options traders
Here's the thing about analyst price targets: they're not predictions. They're opinions backed by models, and every model has assumptions baked in. When you see a range of targets for TGT stretching from the low end (bearish cases worried about margin compression and tariffs) to the high end (bullish cases banking on digital growth), that range itself is data.
For options traders, the width of that range maps roughly to expected volatility. A stock where analysts mostly agree on a narrow band is a different animal than one where the spread is wide. TGT falls into the wide-spread camp, which means options premiums tend to reflect that uncertainty. The question is whether they reflect it accurately or whether there's a mispricing you can exploit.
Implied Volatility (IV) Percentile: This tells you where a stock's current implied volatility ranks relative to its own history over a defined period, typically one year. An IV percentile of 80 means the stock's options are more expensive than 80% of the time over the past year. This helps you decide whether selling premium (high IV) or buying it (low IV) is more favorable.
Before placing any trade around an earnings report or price target revision, check where TGT's IV percentile sits. If it's elevated, strategies that sell premium (like iron condors or credit spreads) have a statistical tailwind. If it's low, long options or debit spreads may offer better risk/reward. You can pull up the TGT research page on Rallies.ai to start building context on the stock's fundamentals before diving into the options chain.
What is the projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call, and how should you interpret it?
Consensus price targets aggregate individual analyst opinions, and they shift after every earnings report. For TGT, the typical pattern looks like this: the company reports earnings, management provides or updates guidance, and analysts revise their models. Some raise targets, some lower them, and the consensus moves accordingly.
What matters more than the consensus number is the direction and clustering of revisions. If most analysts are revising upward but a few are cutting sharply, that divergence signals genuine uncertainty. If revisions cluster tightly in one direction, the market may already be pricing that in, which reduces the edge for options traders.
A few things to watch in any TGT earnings report that drive analyst revisions:
- Comparable sales trends: Declining comps with improving digital sales tell a different story than broad-based weakness. Analysts weigh these differently.
- Gross margin trajectory: Margin contraction from tariffs or inventory markdowns gets penalized. Margin expansion from better mix or cost discipline gets rewarded.
- Inventory levels relative to sales: Rising inventory without matching sales growth suggests future markdowns, which pressures margins and pulls targets lower.
- Forward guidance tone: Management's commentary on consumer spending, promotional activity, and capital allocation shapes the next round of targets.
None of these metrics exist in isolation. The projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call is really a composite of how analysts weigh each of these factors, and reasonable people disagree.
How to use the Greeks when trading TGT options around price targets
If you're trading options on TGT based on analyst targets or earnings expectations, you need to understand what the Greeks are telling you about your position. Not as abstract theory, but as practical risk management.
Delta: Measures how much an option's price changes for a one-dollar move in the underlying stock. A delta of 0.50 means the option moves roughly fifty cents for every dollar TGT moves. Delta also approximates the probability that an option expires in the money.
Delta and directional exposure
If you think analyst upgrades will push TGT toward the upper end of the target range, you might buy calls. But which strike? A deep in-the-money call (delta around 0.80) behaves almost like stock, giving you leverage without the full capital outlay. An at-the-money call (delta around 0.50) gives you a balanced risk/reward. An out-of-the-money call (delta around 0.20) is a cheap lottery ticket that usually expires worthless.
For most investors researching what is the projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call, the at-the-money or slightly in-the-money strike offers the best trade-off between cost and probability of profit.
Gamma and earnings volatility
Gamma: Measures how fast delta changes as the stock price moves. High gamma means your position's sensitivity to TGT's price shifts rapidly, which is common with short-dated options near the money. This makes gamma both your friend (big move in your favor accelerates gains) and your enemy (big move against you accelerates losses).
Around earnings, gamma spikes for near-term options. If you're holding weekly options through a TGT earnings report, gamma is the dominant Greek. A large move in either direction will have an outsized impact on your P&L. If you want exposure to a post-earnings move without the gamma risk, consider options with more time until expiration, where gamma is lower and theta decay is more gradual.
Theta and time decay considerations
Theta: Measures how much value an option loses each day, all else equal. Theta accelerates as expiration approaches, which means short-dated options lose value fastest. If you're a buyer, theta works against you. If you're a seller, it works for you.
This is where the connection between analyst targets and options strategy gets practical. If you believe TGT will drift toward a consensus target over several months, buying longer-dated options (60 to 120 days out) reduces the daily theta drag. If you think the stock will stay range-bound between the bearish and bullish targets, selling short-dated options captures theta decay while the stock chops around.
Vega and implied volatility
Vega: Measures how much an option's price changes for a one-percentage-point change in implied volatility. High vega means the option is sensitive to IV changes. After earnings, IV typically drops sharply (called "IV crush"), which hurts long option positions even if the stock moves in your direction.
This is the trap that catches new options traders. You buy calls on TGT before earnings, the stock moves up modestly, but your calls lose money because IV dropped by more than the stock gained. Understanding vega and comparing current IV to historical IV before entering a trade is not optional. It's the difference between a smart trade and an expensive lesson.
Strike selection criteria for TGT options
Choosing the right strike price depends on your thesis, your risk tolerance, and the current options pricing. Here's a framework:
- Define your thesis: Are you playing for the bullish target, the bearish target, or expecting the stock to stay between them? Your directional view determines whether you're buying calls, buying puts, or selling spreads.
- Check IV percentile: If IV is above its historical median, favor strategies that sell premium. If below, favor strategies that buy premium.
- Pick your delta: For directional trades, start with a delta that matches your conviction. High conviction? Higher delta (0.60 to 0.70). Moderate conviction? Lower delta (0.30 to 0.40) with less capital at risk.
- Choose your timeframe: Match your options expiration to how long you think the thesis needs to play out. If analyst targets are 12-month forward estimates, weekly options are the wrong vehicle. Look at expirations 45 to 90 days out as a starting point.
- Calculate risk/reward: Before entering, know your maximum loss (premium paid for long options, or margin requirement for short positions) and your profit target. If the risk/reward ratio is worse than 1:2, reconsider the strike or strategy.
You can use the Rallies AI Research Assistant to ask specific questions about a stock's earnings history, margin trends, and competitive positioning before building your options trade.
Comparing current IV to historical IV for TGT
One of the most useful habits for options traders is comparing where IV sits today versus where it's been. For a stock like TGT, IV tends to follow a cycle: it rises heading into earnings, spikes in the days before the report, and then collapses after the announcement. Knowing where you are in that cycle matters.
Here's how to think about it:
- IV percentile above 70: Options are expensive relative to history. Selling strategies (covered calls, cash-secured puts, iron condors) tend to have a structural edge because you're collecting elevated premium.
- IV percentile between 30 and 70: Neutral territory. Strategy selection depends more on your directional thesis than on vol mispricing.
- IV percentile below 30: Options are cheap. If you have a directional view, buying calls or puts (or debit spreads to limit cost) lets you pay less for exposure to a potential move.
For TGT specifically, the stock has historically experienced significant IV expansion before earnings due to the wide range of analyst opinions and the uncertainty around retail consumer trends. If you're trading TGT options, building a habit of checking IV percentile before every trade is worth the extra sixty seconds.
The simple prompt versus the pro prompt
Most investors searching for what is the projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call type something simple into a search bar or AI tool. There's nothing wrong with that starting point. But the quality of the answer depends on the quality of the question.
Here's a simple version of that prompt:
what is the projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call
That gives you a number. Maybe a range. But it doesn't give you the context to act on it intelligently, especially if you're trading options where precision matters.
Now compare it to a more structured version:
What should I look for in Target's next earnings report to understand whether their turnaround strategy is working — which specific metrics around traffic, margins, and inventory would show me if they're getting back on track compared to where they've been struggling?
The second prompt does three things the first one doesn't:
- It asks for specific metrics (traffic, margins, inventory) instead of a single number, giving you multiple data points to evaluate
- It frames the question around a thesis (turnaround strategy) rather than asking for a passive data dump
- It requests context (where they've been struggling) so the answer includes the baseline you need for comparison
If you're building options positions around TGT earnings or analyst target revisions, the second prompt gives you the raw material to make better decisions. The first one gives you a headline.
How to customize these prompts for your own research
The structure works for any stock, not just TGT. Here's how to adapt it:
- Swap the ticker and company name: Replace TGT and Target with whatever you're researching
- Change the thesis: Instead of "turnaround strategy," you might ask about "market share gains" or "margin expansion" or "capital allocation changes"
- Add options-specific questions: Ask about historical earnings moves (how much has the stock moved on average after the last several earnings reports?) to calibrate your expected move and strike selection
- Request structured output: Ask for a table or list format so you can compare metrics across quarters or against competitors
You can browse Rallies.ai's Vibe Screener to find other stocks with similar characteristics to TGT, then run the same prompts on those tickers to build a broader watchlist.
Try it yourself
Want to run this kind of analysis on your own? Copy any of these prompts and paste them into the Rallies AI Research Assistant:
- What should I look for in Target's next earnings report to understand whether their turnaround strategy is working — which specific metrics around traffic, margins, and inventory would show me if they're getting back on track compared to where they've been struggling?
- what is the projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call
- How does TGT's historical implied volatility around earnings compare to the current IV percentile, and what options strategies have historically performed best given that pattern?
Frequently asked questions
What is the projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call?
Analyst price targets for TGT after earnings reports typically span a wide range, reflecting disagreement about the company's margin trajectory, digital growth, and competitive positioning. The consensus target aggregates these views into a single number, but the spread between the highest and lowest targets is often more informative for options traders than the average itself. Check the most recent analyst revisions on the TGT page on Rallies.ai for updated context.
How do I trade TGT options around an earnings report?
Start by checking the IV percentile to see whether options are expensive or cheap relative to history. If IV is elevated (above 70th percentile), strategies that sell premium tend to have an edge. If IV is low, buying options or debit spreads may offer better risk/reward. Choose your expiration based on how long your thesis needs to unfold, and size the position so your maximum loss is something you're comfortable with.
What does IV crush mean for TGT options after earnings?
IV crush is the sharp drop in implied volatility that happens after an earnings announcement removes uncertainty. Even if TGT moves in your expected direction, long options positions can lose money if the vega impact from falling IV outweighs the delta gain from the stock move. This is why many experienced options traders prefer to sell premium into earnings rather than buy it.
Which Greeks matter most for TGT options trades?
For short-dated trades around earnings, gamma and vega dominate. Gamma determines how quickly your exposure changes with stock movement, and vega determines how much IV changes affect your option's value. For longer-dated positions based on analyst target convergence, delta (directional exposure) and theta (time decay) are more relevant.
How do I pick the right strike price for TGT options?
Match your strike to your conviction level and the risk/reward you want. Higher delta strikes (in the money) cost more but have a higher probability of profit. Lower delta strikes (out of the money) are cheaper but expire worthless more often. A reasonable starting point for directional trades is a 0.40 to 0.50 delta strike with 45 to 90 days until expiration.
What's the difference between IV percentile and IV rank for TGT?
IV percentile tells you the percentage of days over the past year where IV was lower than it is now. IV rank tells you where current IV sits relative to the 52-week high and low, expressed as a percentage. Both are useful, but IV percentile is generally considered more robust because it's not skewed by a single extreme reading. Either metric helps you decide whether TGT options are relatively cheap or expensive.
How do analyst price target changes affect TGT's options pricing?
Individual analyst upgrades or downgrades can cause short-term stock moves that ripple through the options chain. More significant is when multiple analysts revise in the same direction, which can shift the consensus target and change the expected trading range. Options market makers adjust their models when this happens, which shows up as changes in implied volatility and the skew between call and put pricing.
Can I use Rallies.ai to research TGT options strategies?
Yes. The Rallies AI Research Assistant can help you analyze TGT's fundamentals, earnings history, and competitive positioning. You can also explore thematic portfolios that include retail stocks to see how TGT fits within a broader sector context.
Bottom line
Understanding what is the projected target for $TGT based on their last earnings call is a starting point, not an endpoint. The consensus number only becomes useful when you layer in context about margins, comparable sales, and inventory, and then translate that context into an options strategy that accounts for IV percentile, the Greeks, and proper strike selection. The gap between bullish and bearish analyst targets is where the real information lives for options traders.
If you're building a research process around TGT or any other stock, the quality of your questions determines the quality of your analysis. Start with the frameworks above and adapt them to your own risk tolerance and thesis. For more on how to approach options research with AI-powered tools, dig into the resources on Rallies.ai and do your own research before making any investment decisions.
Disclaimer: This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. Rallies.ai does not recommend that any security, portfolio of securities, transaction, or investment strategy is suitable for any specific person. All investments involve risk, including the possible loss of principal. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Before making any investment decision, consult with a qualified financial advisor and conduct your own research.
Written by Gav Blaxberg, CEO of WOLF Financial and Co-Founder of Rallies.ai.