30-Year Treasury Yield Stalls at 5.12% as JPMorgan Warns No Fed Cuts
JPM•Thirty-year Treasury yield held around 5.12% after briefly touching 5.16%, while two- and ten-year yields remained firm as global bond selloff eased. JPMorgan Asset Management’s Kim Crawford said inflation data don’t justify rate cuts, bolstering forecasts for sustained hawkish Fed policy and higher long-end borrowing costs.
1. Treasury Yields Movement
Treasuries fluctuated in early US trading, with the 30-year yield at 5.12% after briefly rising to 5.16%, near a three-year high. Two- and ten-year yields also held firm following a global bond selloff driven by inflation concerns and energy market tensions.
2. Fed Policy Outlook
Surging energy prices and resilient economic data have shifted market expectations from rate cuts in 2026 to a potential Fed hike by March 2027. Interest-rate swaps now imply a nearly certain policy increase to counter persistent inflation pressures.
3. JPMorgan Asset Management Perspective
Kim Crawford, global rates portfolio manager at JPMorgan Asset Management, noted the absence of disinflation signs in recent data, arguing there is no case for rate reductions. She advises investors to brace for prolonged elevated rates and higher duration premiums on long-dated Treasuries.
4. Market Implications
Sustained high long-term yields could boost banks’ net interest margins but also depress fixed-income valuations. The market is eyeing the Fed’s April meeting minutes later this week for guidance on potential shifts in policy and duration strategies.
