Alaska Air beats Q4 EPS guidance with 0.6% RASM growth and $1.2B cash flow
Alaska Air Group reported Q4 adjusted EPS of $0.43, beating the prior guidance of ~$0.10, while RASM rose 0.6% on 2.2% capacity growth and GAAP net income was $21 million ($0.18 per share). The company generated $1.2 billion in operating cash flow for 2025, achieved a single operating certificate with Hawaiian Airlines and placed a record order for 105 737-10 and 5 787 jets.
1. Q4 2025 Results Exceed Expectations
Alaska Air Group reported GAAP net income of $21 million, or $0.18 per share, for the quarter ended December 31, 2025, compared with $71 million, or $0.55 per share, in the year-ago period. On an adjusted basis, excluding special items and mark-to-market fuel hedge impacts, net income was $50 million, or $0.43 per share, well above the prior guidance midpoint of $0.10. Fourth-quarter revenue totaled $3.6 billion, delivering a 0.6% year-over-year increase in revenue per available seat mile despite a temporary government shutdown in November. Unit costs, excluding fuel and special items, rose just 1.3%, below the prior expectation of a 3% increase, and fuel expense averaged $2.57 per gallon for the quarter.
2. Integration and Operational Milestones
During the quarter, Alaska Airlines and Hawaiian Airlines achieved a single operating certificate, marking the most significant step in their integration since September 2024. The combined carrier recorded record credit-card signups, with nearly 25% enrolling in the new premium card launched in Q3 2025. International expansion efforts included the launch of bookings on Seattle-London and Seattle-Rome routes, with sales now available in six foreign currencies and three localized websites (Japanese, Korean and Italian). The group also took delivery of six Boeing 737-8s and one 787-9, and unveiled a new global livery for the 787 fleet, positioning itself for its spring 2026 international schedule.
3. 2026 Guidance Reflects Cautious Optimism
For Q1 2026, management expects adjusted earnings per share to be roughly flat year-over-year, supported by corporate travel revenues up 20% in early January and several of the strongest booking days on record. Full-year 2026 guidance calls for system capacity to grow 2% to 3% versus 2025, adjusted earnings of $3.50 to $6.50 per share, and capital expenditures of $1.4 to $1.5 billion. The outlook assumes continued realization of synergies from the Hawaiian integration and disciplined cost control, with a full-year adjusted pretax margin target of approximately 2.8% and a tax rate of 26% to 27%.