Alcoa reported fourth-quarter revenue of $3.45 billion, exceeding consensus estimates of $3.24 billion despite a 1.1% year-over-year decline. Adjusted earnings per share reached $1.26, beating the $0.95 consensus by 32.6%. Net income attributable to the company climbed to $226 million, up from $202 million in the year-ago quarter, driven by gains in both alumina and aluminum sales. Adjusted EBITDA excluding special items jumped sequentially by $276 million to $546 million, reflecting higher realized aluminum prices and carbon compensation benefits recognized in Spain and Norway.

Alcoa closed the quarter with a cash balance of $1.6 billion and generated $537 million of operating cash flow, a sequential improvement of $452 million. Free cash flow for the period totaled $294 million after capital expenditures of $243 million. The company redeemed its remaining $141 million of 5.5% senior notes due 2027 and paid $26 million in dividends, reducing total debt to $2.4 billion and adjusted net debt to $1.5 billion by year end.

B. Riley reiterated a “Buy” rating for Alcoa and raised its 12-month price target from $44 to $78, citing the company’s ability to exceed market expectations and maintain operational efficiency. The upgrade follows Alcoa’s beat on both top and bottom lines and its resilience in a competitive environment dominated by large rivals such as Rio Tinto and Norsk Hydro.

For fiscal 2026, Alcoa projects alumina production of 9.7 to 9.9 million metric tons—up from 2025 levels—and aluminum production of 2.4 to 2.6 million metric tons, supported by smelter restarts at San Ciprián and productivity gains across its global operations. First-quarter adjusted EBITDA is expected to face headwinds of approximately $100 million due to seasonal maintenance and the absence of prior-period carbon compensation benefits, but full-year performance is anticipated to benefit from sustained high aluminum prices and incremental volume growth.