Shares of ASML jumped more than 8% intraday on Friday after Aletheia Capital raised its recommendation from Sell to Buy and boosted its target to a valuation based on a 30x multiple of fiscal 2027 earnings. The firm cited sharply higher earnings projections for fiscal 2026 and 2027, driven by an anticipated new wave of semiconductor capacity expansions and investment cycles in DRAM and logic manufacturing.

Aletheia highlighted stronger-than-expected demand for extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography tools among DRAM producers, resilient deep ultraviolet (DUV) system orders from China in fiscal 2026, and a potential surge in orders from TSMC in fiscal 2027. The research house estimated TSMC alone could install 40 to 45 EUV units as it expands advanced capacity by 40%–50% next year, potentially lifting total EUV shipments to 75–80 systems—near ASML’s current maximum output. As a result, low-NA EUV revenue is forecast to rise by roughly one-third in fiscal 2026 and accelerate by 50%–60% in fiscal 2027, supported by higher volumes and a richer product mix.

ASML commands approximately 90% market share in advanced lithography equipment, a position underpinned by technology that is roughly a decade ahead of any competitor. Revenue climbed 21% to nearly 23 billion euros, while diluted EPS increased 40% to 17.38 per share in the first nine months of 2025. Services revenue, which benefits from nearly three decades of equipment life cycles, rose 39% to 6 billion euros and now represents about 26% of total sales. With gross margins in the low-50% range and a P/E ratio around 34—well below the technology sector average—ASML is positioned to capture sustained recurring revenue as AI infrastructure spending ramps up.