Alphabet Forecasts $175–185B CapEx, Shares Slide 5%, Erasing $170B Value

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Alphabet’s Q4 revenue topped estimates at $113.83 billion with EPS of $2.82 as Cloud revenue surged 48% to $17.7 billion. The company forecast $175–185 billion in 2026 capital spending and saw its shares fall over 5%, erasing about $170 billion in market value.

1. Alphabet Posts Strong Q4 Results Driven by AI Adoption

Alphabet delivered a robust fourth-quarter performance, with total revenues rising 22% year-over-year. Search advertising grew double digits, while YouTube ad sales expanded by 30%. The Google Cloud unit reported 48% revenue growth to $17.7 billion and generated $5.3 billion in operating income. Management highlighted that the integration of the Gemini AI models helped accelerate monetization of zero-click queries and drove higher average advertising prices across both search and YouTube.

2. Massive Capex Increase Signals Commitment to AI Infrastructure

For the fiscal year, Alphabet guided to capital expenditures of $175 billion to $185 billion, roughly double the prior year’s investment level. This spending allocation will be directed toward data-center build-out, network capacity expansion and AI hardware deployment. Management emphasized that the incremental investment is necessary to support projected demand for generative AI services and to secure power availability for new facilities.

3. Analysts Remain Bullish on Long-Term Cloud and AI Upside

Major Wall Street firms reiterated positive outlooks following the earnings release. Bank of America noted that accelerated Search activity from AI use cases should drive further revenue upside, while JPMorgan argued that the elevated capex guidance reflects confidence in AI infrastructure leadership. Scotiabank raised its price target on the strength of a Cloud backlog that has doubled year-over-year to approximately $240 billion and a monthly active user base for Gemini exceeding 750 million.

4. Investor Sentiment Tests Near-Term Valuation

Alphabet’s shares initially dipped in the trading session after the capex announcement, as some investors weighed the near-term cash-flow impact of the spending ramp. However, buy-side surveys indicate that many view the pullback as a healthy consolidation following a nearly 70% rally in the past six months. Market-wide interest in mega-cap AI beneficiaries may drive renewed demand if upcoming quarters continue to deliver double-digit Cloud growth and further product enhancements from the Gemini platform.

Sources

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