Alphabet Forecasts Q4 EPS of $2.62 and Secures $16B Waymo Round

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Analysts forecast Q4 EPS of $2.62 and $104.75 billion revenue, up from $2.15 and $96.47 billion last year, driven by Google Cloud’s 34% growth and AI monetization. Waymo is raising $16 billion at $110 billion valuation as Alphabet budgets $91–93 billion in 2025 capex, potentially compressing free cash flow.

1. Broadcom’s AI Hardware Partnership Strengthens Alphabet’s AI Infrastructure

Broadcom has rapidly become a critical supplier for Alphabet’s AI ambitions, supplying custom Tensor Processing Unit (TPU) accelerators for Google Cloud’s AI workloads. With 50% of Broadcom’s sales now tied to AI-focused customers and year-over-year revenue growth of 24%, Alphabet benefits from a diversified AI supply chain that complements Nvidia GPU deployments. Broadcom’s 40.8% operating margin on its ASIC business underscores its efficiency, potentially lowering Google Cloud’s cost of goods sold and enhancing long-term gross margins for Alphabet’s cloud division.

2. Expectations for Alphabet’s Q4 Results Highlight AI-Driven Growth and Cost Pressures

Analysts forecast that Alphabet’s fourth-quarter earnings per share will rise by more than 20% compared to the prior year, driven by strength in AI-powered Search and continued expansion of Google Cloud. Cloud revenue backlog surged by one-third year-over-year, reflecting strong enterprise adoption of Gemini AI services. However, investors are watching operating expenses closely as capital investment plans of over ninety billion dollars in 2025 could weigh on free cash flow. Increased R&D spending on AI model development and higher sales and marketing outlays to defend search share from competitive threats pose execution risks.

3. Alphabet Tops Magnificent Seven in 2025 Performance with Strong Analyst Sentiment

In 2025, Alphabet delivered a 65.2% total return, leading the Magnificent Seven group of technology leaders. This outperformance contrasts with the basket’s average gain of under 30% and underscores the market’s confidence in Google’s AI monetization. Data from industry consensus show Alphabet has beaten earnings per share estimates in eleven consecutive quarters and revenue forecasts in nine of the last ten, bolstering several major brokerages’ buy ratings and lifting average price targets by more than 10% over the past three months.

4. Waymo Funding Round Signals Alphabet’s Autonomous Mobility Ambitions

Waymo, Alphabet’s self-driving car unit, is set to close a financing round of approximately sixteen billion dollars, valuing the subsidiary at around one hundred ten billion dollars. Alphabet is expected to contribute the majority of new capital, reinforcing its commitment to autonomy. Waymo’s annual recurring revenue has climbed to over three hundred fifty million dollars, with more than twenty million trips completed and over one hundred twenty-five million fully autonomous miles logged. This financial endorsement accelerates Waymo’s path to hosting one million rides per week across major U.S. cities, further diversifying Alphabet’s long-term growth drivers.

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