AppLovin Initiated at Outperform with $835 Target, Projects 30%+ CAGRs and $3.4B E-Commerce Revenue
Evercore ISI initiated an Outperform rating on AppLovin with an $835 target, forecasting revenue and EBITDA CAGRs above 30% through 2028 and $3.4B in e-commerce ad revenue by 2028. A Power Inflow alert at 10:54 AM after a 10% drop triggered a 3% intraday bounce, signaling institutional buying interest.
1. Company Reports Robust Q3 Results
AppLovin delivered a standout third-quarter performance, generating 68% year-over-year revenue growth and expanding adjusted EBITDA margins to 82%. The company exceeded consensus estimates on both top and bottom lines, driven by strong advertiser demand and efficient cost management. Sequentially, revenue increased by over 15%, marking the fifth consecutive quarter of accelerating growth. Management highlighted free cash flow generation of more than $200 million for the quarter, underscoring the business’s improving leverage and ability to fund strategic investments without diluting shareholders.
2. AI-Powered Advertising Enhancements Gain Traction
The company’s Axon AI engine continues to revolutionize ad targeting, with pilot programs demonstrating a 30% lift in conversion rates for non-gaming verticals such as fintech and automotive. During the most recent earnings call, CEO Adam Foroughi noted that AppLovin captured a material share of holiday shopping ad spend for the first time, validating its models outside of mobile gaming. Development of generative-AI ad creative tools is on track for a mid-year launch, which is expected to reduce campaign setup times by up to 40% and drive higher engagement metrics for advertisers.
3. Expansion Into E-commerce Advertising Accelerates
AppLovin achieved significant penetration in the e-commerce segment, onboarding over 500 new retail and direct-to-consumer brands during the holiday season. Internal data indicate that these advertisers achieved an average return on ad spend above 4:1 during initial campaigns. With a forthcoming self-service platform, the company anticipates scaling e-commerce ad volume tenfold over the next 12 months, transforming this segment into a major contributor to overall revenue.
4. Strategic Divestment of Mobile Gaming Division
In a decisive pivot, AppLovin signed a term sheet to sell its mobile gaming unit for $900 million, comprising $500 million in cash and $400 million in equity in the buyer’s private company. This move releases capital and refocuses resources on the core ad-tech business. By exiting game development, AppLovin aims to accelerate platform enhancements, pursue larger addressable markets against incumbents like Google and Meta, and streamline its operating model for higher profit margins.