AppLovin shares plunged another 15% in early trading after Google unveiled Project Genie, an AI-driven game-creation prototype. The stock has now slid roughly 30% since January and fallen decisively below its 50- and 200-day moving averages, handing momentum to technical bears. This aggressive pullback follows a broader selloff that began at the start of the year, with AppLovin down nearly 35% from its December highs. Investor anxiety was further exacerbated by a recent short-seller report questioning the company’s long-term user acquisition costs and ad yield sustainability.

Consensus estimates ahead of the Q4 release forecast 67% year-over-year EPS growth, driven by strength in gaming ad monetization and the MAX in-app bidding platform. Revenue is expected to climb by 16.9%, supported by higher average revenue per daily active user and a broadening advertiser base. Analysts highlight that AppLovin’s diversified ad stack and expanding partnerships with key game publishers could help it exceed current street expectations, setting the stage for a potential rebound if results beat forecasts.

Despite recent volatility, AppLovin maintains one of the highest margins in adtech, with a 59% net income margin and 82% adjusted EBITDA margin reported in the last quarter. The company’s free cash flow remains strong, enabling an active $3.3 billion share repurchase program that has retired over 10% of shares outstanding since inception. Management has signaled confidence in long-term unit economics, pointing to a sustained ability to generate incremental cash per ad dollar even as competition in AI-driven marketing intensifies.