Archer-Daniels-Midland Posts Q4 $456M Net Earnings, Forecasts $3.60–$4.25 2026 EPS
ADM posted Q4 net earnings of $456 million and adjusted EPS of $0.87, down 24% year-on-year, and full-year adjusted net earnings of $1.7 billion with adjusted EPS of $3.43. It projects 2026 adjusted EPS of $3.60–$4.25, $1.3–$1.5 billion in capital expenditures, and a 2% dividend hike.
1. Dividend Growth and Cash Flow Resilience
Archer-Daniels-Midland Company has extended its dividend growth streak to 53 consecutive years, reflecting the strength and predictability of its free cash flow generation. Over the past decade, long-term free cash flow has outpaced cumulative share price appreciation by approximately 15%, underpinned by disciplined working-capital management and targeted cost-reduction initiatives. This stable income profile has been preserved despite fluctuations in global commodity markets and ongoing uncertainty around biofuel mandates and trade flows with key partners such as China.
2. Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year 2025 Results
For the quarter ended December 31, 2025, ADM reported net earnings of $456 million and adjusted net earnings of $422 million, translating to EPS of $0.94 and adjusted EPS of $0.87. On a full-year basis, net earnings totaled $1.1 billion with adjusted net earnings of $1.7 billion, or EPS of $2.23 and adjusted EPS of $3.43. Operating cash flows reached $5.5 billion for 2025, with cash flows from operations before working capital changes of $2.7 billion. The company increased its quarterly dividend by 2%, marking the 53rd straight year of growth.
3. Segment Performance Trends
In Q4 2025, total segment operating profit declined 22% to $821 million. The Ag Services & Oilseeds segment fell 31% to $444 million as lower soybean export volumes and margin headwinds weighed on results. Carbohydrate Solutions delivered $299 million in operating profit, down 6%, with softer starch and sweeteners volumes partially offset by higher ethanol margins. Nutrition produced $78 million, an 11% decrease, reflecting continued investment in innovation and modest organic growth. For the full year, segment operating profit totaled $3.24 billion, with Ag Services & Oilseeds down 34%, Carbohydrate Solutions down 12% and Nutrition up 8%.
4. 2026 Outlook and Policy Drivers
ADM projects adjusted EPS of $3.60 to $4.25 in 2026, with the lower end assuming flat crush margins and ongoing deferral of U.S. biofuel policy, and the upper end reflecting margin expansion, manufacturing efficiency gains and stronger end-market demand. Capex is guided to $1.3–$1.5 billion. Management has identified clarity on the U.S. Renewable Fuel Standard and normalization of China trade relations as the primary catalysts for recovery in global crush margins and export volumes, with timing of policy announcements expected to drive upside toward the high end of the EPS range.