AT&T projects $16B free cash flow, funds 4.5% dividend and $20B buybacks

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AT&T added 300,000 net postpaid phone and 200,000 fiber subscribers in Q3 2025, extending fiber coverage to 31 million locations (40% penetration). 2025 free cash flow is forecast above $16 billion, covering the $0.2775 quarterly dividend (4.5% yield) and enabling $20 billion of share buybacks through 2027.

1. Consistent Wireless and Fiber Subscriber Growth

AT&T added more than 300,000 net postpaid phone subscribers each quarter from early 2023 through Q3 2025, maintaining postpaid phone churn at just 0.92% in that quarter. On the fiber side, the company has increased its consumer fiber base by at least 200,000 net adds per quarter, extending its fiber network to over 31 million locations and achieving a 40% penetration rate. By the end of Q3 2025, approximately 4.2 million subscribers purchased both wireless and fiber services, driving higher average revenue per user and reducing customer turnover risk.

2. Free Cash Flow and Shareholder Returns

AT&T expects to generate more than $16 billion in free cash flow for 2025, covering its $0.2775 quarterly dividend—which yields roughly 4.5%—by over 200%. Despite a pause in dividend increases due to a recent $23 billion spectrum acquisition, the company plans to repurchase $20 billion of its stock through 2027. Continued buybacks should reduce share count, boost per-share earnings and position AT&T for potential dividend hikes once debt from the spectrum purchase is paid down.

3. Strategic Expansion into Satellite Connectivity

In late 2025, AT&T partnered with AST SpaceMobile to deploy satellite connectivity gateways aimed at serving rural and remote U.S. regions. The initial roll-out covers several hundred square miles across multiple states, with a beta service scheduled for FirstNet and select commercial customers in mid-2026. This initiative leverages unused midband spectrum to extend AT&T’s network reach where fiber and traditional wireless infrastructure remain cost-prohibitive, potentially adding tens of thousands of incremental subscribers over the next two years.

Sources

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