AT&T Profit Outlook Tops Estimates with $18B FCF Forecast Post $29B Deals
AT&T forecast 2026 free cash flow of at least $18 billion, rising to $21 billion by 2028, and set adjusted EPS guidance of $2.25–$2.35 versus $2.23 consensus after finalizing $6 billion in Lumen fiber and $23 billion in EchoStar spectrum deals. Shares jumped over 5% intraday.
1. Strong Fourth-Quarter Operational Results
AT&T reported fourth-quarter revenues of $33.5 billion, exceeding consensus by nearly $700 million, and delivered adjusted EPS of $0.52, up 21% year-over-year. Wireless service revenues rose 2.4% to $17.0 billion, supported by net additions of 421,000 postpaid phone subscribers and a postpaid churn rate of just 0.98%. On the broadband side, AT&T added 283,000 fiber subscribers and 221,000 fixed wireless internet customers, marking its best second consecutive quarter of advanced home internet net additions. The company generated $11.3 billion of cash from operations and $4.2 billion of free cash flow in the quarter, up 5% from a year ago despite elevated capital expenditures of $6.8 billion.
2. Capital Returns and Balance Sheet Discipline
AT&T returned more than $12 billion to shareholders in 2025 through dividends and share repurchases, and has committed to at least $8 billion of buybacks in 2026, contributing to a total $45 billion capital-return program through 2028. Free cash flow is expected to exceed $18 billion in 2026—one year ahead of prior guidance—rising to over $21 billion by 2028. Management reiterated its investment-grade credit metrics target, forecasting annual cash taxes of $1.0–$1.5 billion and modest pension contributions, underpinning flexibility to sustain capital returns alongside network investment.
3. Strategic Acquisitions and Long-Term Growth Outlook
With closing of a $6 billion transaction for Lumen’s consumer fiber assets and a $23 billion purchase of EchoStar spectrum licenses expected in early 2026, AT&T targets mid-single-digit service revenue growth in its Advanced Connectivity segment. The company forecasts 3–4% adjusted EBITDA growth in 2026, accelerating to 5%+ by 2028, and adjusted EPS of $2.25–$2.35 in 2026 with double-digit CAGR through 2028. These acquisitions are expected to be modestly dilutive to EPS through 2027 before accreting in 2028, as enhanced 5G and fiber capacity drives convergence—currently at 42% of fiber households—to new highs.