Seaport Global Sets $220 Target Despite Q4 EPS Miss, Cites Record Sales

BMIBMI

Seaport Global raised Badger Meter’s price target to $220, implying 55.5% upside despite a Q4 EPS miss of $1.14, 0.9% below consensus. The company posted record 2025 sales of $916.7M, up 11%, and EPS of $4.79, up 13%, driven by strong utility water demand and the SmartCover acquisition.

1. Oversold Valuation Creates a Rebound Opportunity

Badger Meter’s share price has declined by approximately 40% from its mid-2025 peak, pushing the forward P/E multiple to below 20X estimated 2030 earnings. This reset in valuation has generated an oversold condition, as technical indicators show the Relative Strength Index trading near multi-year lows. The pullback coincides with a broader correction in industrial technology stocks, but BMI’s fundamentals remain intact, suggesting the stock is priced for a significant recovery.

2. Q4 2025 and Full-Year Results Highlight Growth and Margin Expansion

In the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, revenue rose by 7.6% year-over-year to $220.7 million, driven by strength in utility water meter shipments and smart infrastructure projects. Operating margin expanded by 120 basis points to 18.3%, while GAAP earnings per share grew by 10% to $1.14. For the full year, Badger Meter delivered record sales of $916.7 million, up 11% from the prior year, and full-year EPS of $4.79, a 13% increase. Free cash flow exceeded $150 million, underpinning the company’s capital return program.

3. Analyst Targets, Institutional Accumulation and Capital Returns

Scott Graham of Seaport Global raised his price target to $220, implying upside of roughly 55%. Institutional ownership has increased by 450 basis points over the past six months, with several large asset managers adding to their positions. Badger Meter maintains a fortress balance sheet, with net leverage below 1.0x EBITDA, and has authorized a $100 million share buyback alongside a dividend yielding 1.2%. Management forecasts mid-teens annual earnings growth through 2028, supported by ongoing adoption of advanced metering infrastructure and aftermarket service contracts.

Sources

MZIF